They don't care about the long term odds. I heard this advice some 20 years ago as I was really learning the game and percentages.įor a casual player this is, to me, good advice. The term is called “risk of ruin” and Wizard of Odds does a better write up than I’m going to do sitting at the Bellagio pool. Where a properly bankrolled person (whether that’s reducing/dropping odds or coming with more money) can survive the bad times and find some good ones to balance it out. One spurt of bad variance and you’re done.
And while they are fair bets (0 house edge) they do reduce the number of trials you can sustain losses on across that same sized budget.Ī $300 buy in lasts a lot shorter of a time when you’re playing $40-60 bets ($10 pass + 3-4-5x odds) than when you’re playing $10 bets.
at this point, your loss is locked in and you can’t play anymore to potentially recover. At some point, you go busto and you can’t play anymore. The casino has a fairly unlimited bankroll compared to most players. To be on the positive side of variance.Ģ - the law of large numbers.
Less than infinite game sequences will have variance to this theoretical house edge and that’s why we all play. The mathematical principle that as a game approaches its theoretical limit (that is, an infinite number of games played) that the game will return less money to the player than is put into it.
